Analysts at the bank project demand will grow by up to 7% next year – but after two years of manageable fleet expansion supply is charted to rise by the same figure.

Analysts led by Greg Lewis say their base case is for capesize rates to average $13,000 daily in 2015.

Its bull case, in which “demand needs to cooperate in a big way”, has rates pencilled in at $17,000 daily for the coming year.