Champagne quarter

Norden raced past forecasts in the fourth quarter but has delivered a sobering forecast for the year ahead. 

Norden has low expectations for dry cargo in 2013.

Losses from ship sales and other one-offs left its bottom line in the red but its operating numbers made for comfortable reading.

Its core operating profit of $44m was its second best of the year and thrashed analysts’ estimates of $25m.

The forecast-topping figure came as both its dry-cargo and tanker divisions reported positive numbers.

Its bulkers and tankers produced core operating returns of $35m and $13m respectively, stronger than both market bets and the figures seen in the previous quarter.

Norden says losses on vessel sales and non-recurring items left its bottom line red at $7.2m for the quarter.

Default position

As TradeWinds reported yesterday much of the attention today was focused on Norden’s view for 2013.

It has tipped its core operating profit to come up short of the $148m seen in 2012 at between $15m and $45m.

Analysts note tankers will carry the burden if the target is to be reached, given Norden expects a break-even result for its dry-cargo division.

“Based on a continued weak freight market, it can be expected that a number of shipowners or operators will get into financial difficulties,” Norden said in its dry-cargo market rundown.

“The dry cargo department's strong focus on solid customers among commodity and mining companies, power plants and major industrial groups has led to a generally high quality of the company's counterparties.

“However, it cannot be ruled out that a few counterparties will fail to fulfil agreements.”

Norden says the tanker market is good right now but it expected to track back a little in the spring.

“However, Norden still expects the product tanker market to continue the gradual improvement from recent years in 2013 as the increased volumes in the global refinery sector contribute to a positive development in tonnage demand,” it said.