US container volumes forecast to see early year decline
Trade association does not expect volume levels to normalise until April in wake of ports dispute.
The US container ports are set to see weaker volumes in the first few months of this year, according to a major trade association.
Despite this volumes for the first half of the year are still expected to see a 4.5% increase, says the US National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Comparisons with last year are difficult because of the surge of cargo after problems at West Coast ports ended, but we think consumers will continue to increase their spending this year and retailers will be ready,” the NRF said.
Ports covered by the NRF’s monthly Global Port Tracker report handled 1.43m-teu in December, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available.
The volume was down 3.4% from November and 0.8% from the year before. It brought 2015 to a total of 18.2mteu, up 5.3% from 2014.
“January was up an estimated 18.3% over 2015 at 1.46mteu, but the percentage was skewed unusually high because of weak volume seen last year just before agreement on a contract with West Coast dockworkers ended months of congestion,” the NRF said.
February is forecast at 1.39mteu, up 16.2%, also skewed by the congestion. March is forecast at 1.35mteu, down 22.4% from high levels seen when a flood of backlogged cargo followed the contract agreement.
The NRF said patterns are expected to return closer to normal in April, which is forecast at 1.49mteu, down 1.2% from last year.
May is forecast at 1.57mteu, down 2.6%, and June at 1.55mteu, down 1.2%. The first half of 2016 is expected to total 8.8mteu, up 4.5% over 2015.
