Stay of execution

An unexpectedly low number of dry-cargo newbuildings were cancelled in the past year as resale deals softened a much anticipated order cull.

Only 10% of the bulker orderbook was chalked off by owners in the past 12 months despite the spectre of huge over capacity hanging over many of the key markets, according to figures from a top Greek shipbroker.

Piraeus-based N Cotzias Shipping says only 434 dry-cargo newbuildings have been deleted from the orderbook since the beginning of December 2008.

The ships, measuring 27 million tonnes, account for just one tenth of the present 4,266 on order, the broker’s year-end report says.

John Cotzias, managing director of the company, says he tipped more contracts to be cancelled in the past year, but suggests a large amount of resale deals in 2009 saved many orders which would otherwise have failed.

The report notes just 593 dry-cargo ships delivered in 2009, a number which is set to swell to a heavy 1,812 in the present year.

It says the outlook for the five main sectors is gloomy with supramaxes likely to face the largest overcapacity issues, ahead of the capesize market.

Around 900 supras remain on order for delivery between now and 2015, a huge 50.90 million tonnes of fresh capacity. This compares with 868 ships of 46.84 million tonnes in the present trading fleet, the report says.

Looking at the capesize sector, 705 newbuildings of 141.77 million tonnes are set to hit the water by 2015, adding to an existing fleet of 896 ships of 161.73 million tonnes.

TradeWinds reported in October that Cotzias believed supramaxes faced an overcapacity scenario of 116% by 2014. In the capesize market the figure could swell to 90%, the broker warned at that time. (Click here for related article.)

Cotzias sees one positive, at least from a shipowner’s perspective, as newbuilding orders dwindled in 2009.

It notes 230 orders for 720 units last year, of which 250 were bulk carriers.

In 2008 a total of 3,500 ships, including 1,473 dry-cargo vessels, were penned at yards around the globe.

Printable version Newsletter sign up