JP Morgan has redrawn its view on the crude tanker market, suggesting earnings will not bottom out until closer to the end of the decade as owners have deviated from typical cyclical behavior.

Analyst Noah Parquette says tanker rates may show modest improvement next year should compliance with OPEC quotas fall apart and overproduction return to the oil market.

“Nevertheless, we believe this will be a short-term event and expect the heavy ordering to continue to weigh on the market,” he said in a tanker market update.