Jonathan Chappell says the implementation of a 1 July ban on Iranian oil exports and the subsequent fallout won’t be as painful as some might expect, however, as the market has been gearing up for the anticipated disruption of trade flows and drop in production for months.

“The beneficial impact of oil trading disruption has already occurred as countries in both hemispheres imported far more than that required for consumption, driving up inventories and tanker demand despite a backdrop of economic weakening,” he wrote in a note to clients.

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