Pareto Securities’ 71-page report this week breaks down the seemingly unfathomable supply-demand question currently dogging forecasts for LNG shipping over the next five years as new destination-flexible cargo volumes start to emerge.
Explaining a simplified version of its model, Pareto sees a need for 50 to 60 additional LNG carriers in the period of 2016 to 2020.
Detailing the volumes of new liquefaction expected onstream from the US, Australia and the rest of the world, and assuming that around 40 ships will leave the market either for demolition or conversion during the period, the analysts calculated that 130 LNG carriers will be needed by 2021 to keep charter rates “stable”.
