“Shipping is like the weather. It’s always changing, but in the same way,” a senior banker tells TW+.

With 22 shipping cycles, lasting an average of 10.4 years, between 1741 and 2007, predicting the periods of rain and sunshine should be relatively simple in an industry prone to repeating its mistakes.

“Fundamentally, independent shipowners do two things,” says Martin Stopford, non-executive president of Clarkson Research Services.