Shipping appears certain to end the year without an initial public offering (IPO) in New York for the first time since 2009, and financial sources are not exactly shy about predicting the shutout even before the fourth quarter arrives.

“When you put all the factors together, the chances [of a 2016 IPO] are about the same as Donald Trump serving as ambassador to Mexico in a Hillary Clinton administration,” said long-time investment banker Mark Friedman of Evercore.

Friedman