Morgan Stanley is expecting public tanker owners to fall short of consensus forecasts in the first quarter, but it shouldn't scare off investors ahead of the seasonal downturn.

Analyst Fotis Giannakoulis expects Ebitda for the peer group to come in roughly 6% lower than expectations, even though spot rates were up year-over-year.

"Following a stronger than expected 1Q, the anticipated seasonal weakness in crude tanker rates has kicked in and is expected to last during 2-3Q," Giannakoulis wrote.