IMO 2020, the regulation to cut marine fuel sulphur emissions from 3.5% to 0.5%, will set off a tsunami.

“It’s over the horizon. We are not seeing the effects yet, but it’s a three-million-barrel-a-day wave that is going to hit us very soon,” says Rick Joswick, head of oil pricing & trade flow analysis at S&P Global Platts, who has worked with the refining industry for 35 years.