The panamax bulker sector’s slide late last week after a two-week rally may continue this week, lest the grain trades from the east coast of South America and US Gulf Coast come to the rescue, BRS Brokers said.
The projection by the French shipbroker came after the Baltic Exchange’s Panamax 5TC of spot-rate averages across five key routes declined 4.8% to just over $17,900 per day on Friday, continuing a downward slump that started the day before.
The forward freight agreement (FFA) market also indicated darker days ahead for panamaxes by staging a two-day decline at the end of last week that took the market into backwardation, when futures fall below spot rates.
October contracts have fallen 15.1% from last Wednesday to $16,929 per day on Friday.
The Baltic Exchange was closed on Monday for the UK public holiday honouring the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
BRS Brokers said that this week, many will have their sights focused on markets in the US Gulf Coast and east coast of South America, which had previously been the market’s “saving grace”.
“If these disappear or weaken for next week, we could expect the downward trajectory to continue,” the shipbroking arm of France’s BRS Group said on Monday.
“With the UK public holiday on Monday for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, we may see a more sombre mood to start the week, although many will likely take a slow start while watching to see which direction the market will take.”
The market on the east coast of South America continued softening on Monday with bids from charterers “harder to come by” as owners looking to fix ships on Monday had to lower their rates significantly, BRS said.
“On the cargo side of things, with no remaining September loadings, it appears we can now focus fully on October,” the shipbroker said.
“We did see a couple of fresh [transatlantic voyage fixtures] today giving the list a minor boost, however for now we wait to see what the start of next week brings to the table.”
The freight rate for the P7 grain route from the US Gulf Coast to Qingdao declined 2.9% to $57.826 per tonne on Friday, while that for the P8 grain trade from Santos, Brazil, to Qingdao slipped 2.4% to $49.483 per tonne on Friday.
