So why didn’t anyone see that coming? In less than a month, VLCC rates doubled, doubled again, then once more for luck. Spot market earnings from the Middle East Gulf to Asia last week hit $330,000 per day compared with the average in 2019 of $31,000, according to Clarksons. In 2018, they averaged just $13,500 per day.

It is a spike unprecedented in a decade that has stunned the market, lifted sentiment in other sectors and even bolstered confidence across the business.