In the world of protection and indemnity insurance, hard or soft market cycles tend to run for three or four years.

If history is anything to go by then the upcoming 20 February renewal should be the last time the majority of the 13 members of the International Group of P&I Clubs demand double-digit rate increases from their shipowner members.

It is the general view of brokers that rate rises probably peaked in 2022 and, even if further rate rises are required again after this year’s renewal, they should be significantly lower than seen recently.