VLCC owners are succeeding in raising spot rates but it may still be too early to tell if recent positive moves indicate the beginning of the long-awaited tanker market recovery.
Daily earnings for modern eco-ships are up more than 11% compared with a week earlier, and 21% since the same week in August.
Clarksons Platou Securities quotes a 2015-built eco-vessel at $10,500 per day on Thursday, against $9,600 two days earlier.
Analysts Omar Nokta and Frode Morkedal said in a note that VLCC activity has clearly improved over the past week and charterers are moving on mid-September loading dates out of the Middle East Gulf.
Rates were bid up on Wednesday and sentiment has improved, brokers said.
Rates rising going forward
Forward freight agreements were also trading higher, and December contracts now indicate rates of $20,000 per day for eco-VLCCs, Clarksons Platou added.
Fearnley Securities said several cargoes are in play on the open market and more vessels are finding employment.
Rates have risen from the Middle East to China at Worldscale (WS) 34, with West African runs at WS 35 for Indian discharges.
UK shipbroker Howe Robinson quoted Middle East to Chinese trips at $5,748 per day on Wednesday.
"The US market remains quiet as US export cargoes have been put on hold due to Hurricane Ida," Fearnleys said.
Analysts Peder Nicolai Jarlsby, Erik Gabriel Hovi and Ulrik Mannhart said that it is too early to call whether this is the start of a turnaround.
"But with owners showing more resistance, positive developments on the volume side and an upcoming winter period, we remain positive that we will see positive cash generation in the fourth quarter," they said.
Quiet start to the week
Howe Robinson said the week had begun quietly for VLCCs, partly due to the UK public holiday, but a couple of Middle East Gulf cargoes then emerged, as well as five loading in West Africa, two of which were quickly fixed.
"Volumes, however, are still not good enough to enable owners to do much about market levels yet," the broker added.
Charterers were also asking more questions about suezmax availability in North West Europe and West Africa, Howe Robinson added.
"However, there remains little movement in rates, with sentiment flat," the company added.
Meanwhile, the Mediterranean and Black Sea continues to be quiet with little fresh enquiry to report for suezmaxes, the broker said
