The smallest tanker newbuilding orderbook this century is helping fuel expectations for a sharp spike in both rates and share prices during the next 12 months, according to Cleave Securities.
Analyst Joakim Hannisdahl says the tanker orderbook is today only 10.5% of the trading fleet, the lowest since 1997.
Coupled with incoming IMO 2020 rules, Hannisdahl says Cleaves is "highly optimistic" towards the second half of this year and onwards.
Tankers is Cleaves top pick, with its tanker share index forecast to show a 136% surge by the second quarter of 2020, according to its latest shipping quarterly.
Hannisdahl is now forecasting VLCC rates of $27,112 per day on average this year, rising to $41,312 per day in 2020.
Further increases to $49,110 per day in 2021 and $51,775 per day in 2022 are presently forecast.
Cleaves is also positive on the suezmax space, with rates of $20,558 per day this year forecast to rise to $29,172 per day in 2020.
By 2022, rates will reach $35,962 per day, its estimates suggest.
Progress is also anticipated in the product tanker market.
Medium range tanker rates of $12,053 per day this year will climb to $14,526 per day in 2020, and average over $16,000 per day in both 2021 and 2022, Hannisdahl believes.