The Aon broking group has issued a warning that declining premium income could trigger change in the protection and indemnity market.

Although the 13 International Group P&I clubs are starting a new policy year in good shape, the broker sees potential challenges ahead.

The premium base of the clubs is declining after two years without a general increase. Churn — the fact that new tonnage subject to competition between the clubs is insured at significantly lower rates than vessels being sold or scrapped — is adding to the pressure on income.