Twenty-eighteen was supposed to be better than this. With first-quarter accounts now being drawn up, many companies will be wondering how — after starting so well — did it all go wrong? And what does that mean for expectations for the rest of this year and beyond?

Crude and product tanker rates today stand anywhere between a half and third of where they were last year, while the benchmark Baltic Dry Index has been dragged back below 1,000 points in recent days by capesize rates crashing.

Only the containership and part of the smaller bulk carrier market appear to have read the script to deliver steady, although uninspiring, growth.

Fragile confidence has been reflected in the trading of public shipping company shares. Only eight of the 57 stocks tracked by Clarksons Platou Securities are showing a positive total return for the year so far, and three of those are only ahead by 1%.

It is not that markets are teetering on the brink of a repeat of 2016’s nightmare for dry bulk. Fundamentals certainly do not move that fast.

Certainly markets started the year with positive momentum, but in the past six weeks much of that has eroded. Overall, 2018 has so far flattered to deceive, and the possible answers to why are discomforting.

The reason behind the good start to the year was that market fundamentals pointed — and continue to point — in the right direction.

With dry bulk trade growth accelerating, up 4% in 2017, and the newbuilding orderbook at 20-year lows, Deutsche Bank forecast in January that 2018 would build on those foundations. Even better markets were possible in 2019.

The tanker market, by contrast, was always set for a rocky first-half, with newbuilding deliveries continuing to outstrip demand. But even professional sceptics would have struggled to predict this week’s VLCC rates of less than $10,000 per day.

Despite the supply side of the market not materially changing, there has been a shift in the mood. As one economic commentator said this week: "Whisper it quietly: is the global economy starting to splutter?"

Rhetoric from Donald Trump’s Twitter account about fighting a trade war with China to put "America First" has certainly inflamed tensions, but many believe the bluster is worse than the reality.

Most serious analysis suggests that the new tariffs imposed on US imports of Chinese goods will have little material impact on the trajectory of the global economy in themselves.

Even the Chinese government has appeared somewhat underwhelmed by the threats from the White House. Chinese President Xi Jinping this week gave a cursory nod towards further opening of its markets, but felt no need to offer any details of how or when the measures would be implemented.

Nevertheless, when the world’s two largest economies threaten each other with $100bn in punitive tariffs, concerns are raised about the impact on other sectors and regions.

It has had the effect of increasing worries that strong global economic growth over the past 18 months may be at its peak.

Global equities markets have fallen by more than 8% since their high point in late January. Investors have been spooked by worries that the world may be in for a bumpier period now that the vast quantitative easing policy of the past 10 years is finally ending.

Combined with a volatile political environment in many parts of the world and bitter arguments over trade policies, it creates a scenario where confidence in the future is fragile.

Confidence that the supply side of shipping markets remains under control should underpin a cautiously positive outlook for the rest of 2018.

But the world is facing rising risk and uncertainty. The strength of shipping’s recovery risks being sacrificed on the altar of Trump’s America First policy.