How long does it take for a market to turn? Crude tankers are in the second year of a slide that may not reverse until 2018. Many sectors of the dry bulk business are only just beginning to recover from a multi-year slump that can be traced back to 2008, albeit with a few minor peaks since then.

Whereas for the offshore vessel market, anyone who tells you they know when it will decisively recover is both deluded and a fool.