A partial return of Vale’s iron ore output this year will most likely boost capesize rates, but full-on production in the next few years may not keep bulker earnings ­rising, analysts say.

Vale expects to return 30 million tonnes of output to the market by the end of 2019 after reopening its massive Brucutu mine in the south-eastern state of Minas ­Gerais in June, ­according to a ­second-quarter production report from the Brazilian iron ore giant.