As tanker shares move toward a third straight week of losses at a time of record earnings, a veteran equity analyst is doubling down on his conviction that it all comes down to the oil.

For Evercore ISI’s Jonathan Chappell, that answer may not be as novel as theories about a massive influx of retail investors fumbling a shares play or quant-fund machine trades overwhelming the sector, but it is an inescapable conclusion based on data.