Russia will never return to 2021 levels of oil exports after a rupture in energy trading sparked by its invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.

The country’s net oil exports will fall by one-quarter by 2030 and by 40% to 2050 from current levels after losing Europe as its biggest customer, sparking a crisis in energy security and pushing nations towards achieving renewables targets, the agency said in its annual outlook report on Thursday.

The European Union is due to ban Russia’s seaborne crude imports from December 5 and its refined oil products two months later.