The Wagner Group’s aborted coup over the weekend has injected huge uncertainty into Russian oil trades.

Mercenaries from the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led private army that has been fighting in Ukraine marched towards Moscow before abruptly turning back, but Fearnley Securities said the political situation is unlikely to revert to normal soon, creating doubts over oil production and exports.

“Should all Russian volumes lapse, they could be supplied by other areas, though it would be a large negative for tankers in terms of tonne-miles,” analyst Oystein Vaagen said.