Next week, an international court is set to make a ruling that could increase tensions in a crucial area of the world for shipping and trade — the South China Sea. On Tuesday 12 July, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague will decide a case brought by the Philippines against China’s incursions into the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal — tiny islets and coral reefs much closer to the Philippines but to which China laid claim in 1947.