Shipowners are expressing strong confidence that the market for capesize steel will outperform this year. But a question mark still lingers over the capesize paper market.

By some measures, trading in forward freight agreements (FFA) for capesizes sits at multi-year lows.

The weekly level of open interest — a measure of liquidity that shows how much money is going into the paper market — in capesize FFAs reached a seven-year low of 54,040 contracts early in January.